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Trained models
Each model owns its train/validation/test split and a sealed test verdict. Default (●) is the model live betting uses; Forecast (◆) drives tournament simulation and fixture predictions — usually a calibrated model, not a strategy-tuned one.
| Name | Predictor | Validation | Test window | Val objective | Test verdict | Default | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-draw-boost | dixon_coles | 2021-06-01 → | 2024-01-01 → 2026-07-01 | -14.9% | No edge | ● | ||
| dc-draw-shotmix | dixon_coles | 2021-06-01 → | 2024-01-01 → 2026-07-01 | -14.9% | No edge | |||
| wc-forecast | calibrated_elo_venue | 2018-06-01 → | 2022-06-01 → 2026-06-29 | -16.7% | No edge | |||
| dc-draw-default | dixon_coles | 2021-06-01 → | 2024-01-01 → 2026-07-01 | -34.4% | No edge |