wc-forecast

No edge

calibrated_elo_venue · objective rps · learning rolling

< 2018-06-01

Train

2018-06-01 → 2022-05-31

Validation

2022-06-01 → 2026-06-29

Test

%{}

Params

Validation (selection)

Bets: 74
Value ROI: -9.1% (-38.3%…+23.1%)
Bankroll growth: -29.4%
Max drawdown: 58.7%
RPS: 0.1667
CLV vs closing: -0.7% (-1.9%…+0.6%)

Test (sealed — the verdict)

Bets: 607
Value ROI: -23.5% (-34.5%…-12.6%)
Bankroll growth: -98.4%
Max drawdown: 98.7%
RPS: 0.1705
CLV vs closing: -1.1% (-1.6%…-0.7%)

Test bankroll over time

Validation search

Objective	Params
★ -16.7%	%{}